Nate Silver's Poker-Style Election Model Shifts: Is Trump Headed for a 2024 Victory?
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Donald Trump (R) is a near-heavy favorite to defeat Kamala Harris (D) in the November US presidential election, according to avid poker enthusiast and political polling guru Nate Silver.
Silver, who recently appeared on the PokerNews Life Outside Poker podcast and talked about the presidential election and political forecasting, founded FiveThirtyEight, where he rose to national prominence. He was relieved of his duties as editor-in-chief last year by Disney/ESPN, the company he sold his website to in 2013.
The one-time limit hold'em specialist with $855,000 in live poker tournament cashes has traditionally leaned left on the political spectrum. But he's giving the Democratic candidate a doom and gloom outlook in her quest to become the first woman president in US history.
A Little Backstory
Trump, the 45th President of the United States, lost his reelection bid to Joe Biden in 2020. The former reality TV star is back and looking to avenge his loss by defeating Biden's Vice President.
Harris, the first woman VP ever, assumed the Democratic nomination in July when Biden stepped down due to apparent cognitive issues and mediocre polling.
Trump held a significant lead in the polls against the candidate he lost to four years ago. But that all changed when Harris replaced Biden on the ticket. The former United States Senator from California (2017-2021) quickly surged into the lead across most polls, even in Rust Belt swing states where Trump had previously held a seemingly comfortable advantage over Biden.
Polls don't stay the same forever, however. The most recent polls show Harris's national lead, once hovering around a 4% advantage, is now slim. And her lead in key swing states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona is non-existent, according to many polls used by top election forecasters.
Why Poker Player Favors Trump
Silver, on his Silver Bulletin newsletter, broke down the current state of the upcoming election using his tried and tested polling model, which is similar to the one used at FiveThirtyEight during the 2020 election.
The model factors in numerous polls, some of which over-poll liberals and some of which over-poll conservatives. Silver does not predict the outcome of an election. He forecasts the likelihood of each candidate winning, and the newest results are not positive for Harris, whose momentum a month ago seemed to fade.
"A new New York Times/Siena College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump, showing him 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup against Kamala Harris and 2 points up with minor candidates included. This is one of our highest-rated pollsters, so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers, reducing Harris��s lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College," Silver wrote on Sunday.
Silver, an online poker pro during the 2000s, gave Trump a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College last Wednesday, up from the coinflip odds before. That number has since risen to 63.8%, putting the former president nearly back to where he stood before Biden dropped out.
Harris is still expected to win the popular vote, much like Hillary Clinton did in 2016. But the popular vote is irrelevant in determining a winner, as only the Electoral College matters. According to Silver, Trump has an edge in this area. Trump's polling in the key swing states has improved slightly in the latest polls, while Harris's support has gone the other way.
Pennsylvania, the state that could determine the outcome of the election, is now nearly a dead heat with Harris leading by the slimmest of margins (0.9%), per FiveThirtyEight. The 49th Vice President of the United States held a 2.3% advantage three weeks ago.
Harris has also lost her brief lead in Arizona, another state that could play a key role in getting one candidate to the needed 270 electoral votes. Biden won Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, a traditionally conservative state, in 2020.
Had Biden lost those three states, Trump would have won the election. The former president has a slim lead in Georgia, a state Harris would almost certainly need to win if she were to lose Pennsylvania (or Michigan).
Harris isn't dead in the water just yet, which Silver acknowledges. She could still turn things back around in her favor before the November 5 election, starting with coming up big in the first Trump-Harris debate Tuesday night.
"The good news for Harris is that there��s a debate on Tuesday, and if she turns in a strong performance, nobody will care so much about the Times poll. We��ll have a longer narrative update on the state of the race coming later today," Silver wrote.
A strong showing in the debate could give Harris the momentum back. Biden all but lost out on his chances of reelection in July with a debate performance against Trump that left many Americans questioning the 81-year-old politician's cognitive skills. He dropped out days later, paving the way for his VP to become the first woman Commander in Chief. But for that to happen, she'll need to put on a good show in the debates, or it could be game, set, match for Trump.
