Flopping a Bad Gutshot from Out of Position vs. Dan Kelly
This week's hand took place during the middle stage of a $3,000 buy-in no-limit hold'em event at the World Series of Poker. I'd built up a stack of close to 175,000 at 1,000/2,000/300, and the hand begins with me defending my big blind against an opening raise by Dan Kelly.
From middle position, Kelly �� who had about 100,000 to begin �� had raised to 4,500 and it folded around to me. Kelly (pictured above) is an very strong, thoughtful pro who generally plays a loose-aggressive style �� not someone you want to tangle with too much. Even so, getting great pot odds I called with 6?3?, and the two of us saw a flop come Q?7?5?.
I checked and Kelly continued for 4,000. As I discuss in the video below, I only have a junky draw here although the pot odds are still favorable for me to call. The flop also hits my range fairly well (and better than his). I called, bringing the pot to a little over 20,000.
The turn was the 5?. While I wouldn't have minded betting here I checked, and Kelly checked behind. The river then brought the Q?, putting a second pair on the board.
What does Kelly's range look like after he checks the turn? What should I do here on the river? Take a look at what I decided to do and how things turned out:
After Kelly's check on the turn and that queen fell on the river, my bluffing seems mandatory. As I say, I'm not sure about my sizing with that river bet, but I liked the idea and things worked out this time.
Jonathan Little is a professional poker player and author with over $6,700,000 in live tournament earnings. He writes a weekly educational blog and hosts a podcast at JonathanLittlePoker.com. You can follow him on Twitter @JonathanLittle.
